The BJP has lost Karnataka, but its spinmeisters will tell you, it is still overwhelmingly the dominant party in India, and the country is finally facing the spectre of a ‘unipolar’ India – this time, with BJP as the sole pole.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said this during the assembly poll campaign in Karnataka (in a dark reference to his favourite subject Pakistan, which never fails to come up when polls are around the corner) that the main opposition Congress party, was close to turning into the ‘PPP’ Punjab, Puducherry and Parivar Congress. It is another matter that this did not happen and the Congress-JD(S) trumped BJP to government formation in the state. But the point of BJP’s propaganda was clear – that the Congress is a fringe party and India is ruled by the BJP, present in over 3/4ths of the government ruling the states of India now, 21 states to be exact.
But what is the real truth behind these statistics which the BJP likes to peddle about its ‘dominance’?
While the BJP may be in power as part of NDA in 21 states, it is in a clear Majority only in 10 state assemblies out of the total of 31.
In Tripura, after winning the Assembly elections, trouncing the Left Front (after swallowing up the erstwhile Congress, then Trinamool opposition) the BJP notched a significant psychological victory. But, despite its best efforts, it has no seats in Sikkim, Mizoram and Tamil Nadu.
Significantly, out of a total of 4139 assembly Seats all over the country, BJP has a mere 1516, not the gigantic figures one might imagine given the spin it puts out.
The continuing thrust of the BJP towards Hindi and Hindu is clear if you look at the geographical skew of where its support comes from. 950 of BJP MLAs come from just 6 states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, MP, Rajasthan. It has meanwhile, just 4 out of 175 seats in Andhra Pradesh, 1 of 140 in Kerala, 3 of 117 in Punjab, 3 of 294 in West Bengal, 5 of 119 in Telangana, a paltry 3 of 70 in Delhi, 10 of 147 in Orissa and 12 of 60 in Nagaland.
Its ability to be able to ‘form governments’ despite having a record low number of seats is evidenced in Meghalaya, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir and in Goa, where despite being in power, it has very few MLAs. So, it has 2 out of 60 in Meghalaya, 53 of the 243 in Bihar, 25 of the total of 87 in J&K and 13 of 40 seats in Goa.
What must worry BJP even more is that despite trying to cast a shadow over India far in excess of its legislative heft, in Parliament too, its numbers are falling precipitously.
It has lost five MP elections just this year in 2018. From the 282 it boasted about in 2014, it is down to 271, minus the Speaker. This is still the majority mark in a Lok Sabha which has 7 vacancies. But if it loses the two MP seats going in for a bypoll on May 28, it would risk losing the majority figure in Lok Sabha too.
It has three Parliamentary sessions to go through before the 2019 General Elections. With the Economy in a mess and its ‘New India’ slogan in tatters, it may want to bring in some ‘sweeping legislations’. The prospects for being able to make them go through looks increasingly dim.