The Congress party will enter into an electoral pact with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh polls. The two parties are planning a similar tie-up in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh also.
With the two parties deliberating on seat-sharing ahead of three crucial assembly polls, research on the votes polled in the 2013 Madhya Pradesh assembly election shows that had the Congress and BSP come together then, the BJP tally would have reduced by 41 seats.
According to a report in The Indian Express, the BJP tally in Chhattisgarh would have come down by 11 seats paving way for the Congress-BSP alliance to form the government. In Rajasthan, the BJP’s tally could have decreased by nine seats. However, in MP the BJP would still be in a position to stake claim to form the government.
The three BJP-ruled states will go to polls in November this year. Congress president Kamal Nath is already in talks with BSP chief Mayawati on a seat-sharing arrangement.
According to The Wire, Kamal Nath is meeting Mayawati with two things in mind – one, a traditional pre-poll alliance and the other, a tactical understanding which will mean putting up candidates which eat into the BJP’s vote share in every constituency.
An analysis by The Hindustan Times shows that Congress and BSP could improve their seat tally in a big way by entering into a pre-poll alliance in the forthcoming elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh.
Madhya Pradesh
In 2013, the BSP had contested 227 of the 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh. It stood at number four with a vote share of 6.42 per cent. Notably, the difference in vote share between the BJP and Congress was 8.4 per cent. The BJP had won 165 seats and the Congress 58.
Calculations show that if the total votes polled by the Congress and BSP in every MP assembly segment in the state are pooled, the two parties would have won 103 seats — a difference of 41 assembly seats.
Chhatisgarh
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won 49 seats of the 90 seats to form the government. The Congress won 39 and the BSP one seat which makes a total 40. But with the Congress and BSP combined, data shows a shift of 11 seats away from BJP. The indicates the alliance would have won 51 seats and the BJP only 38.
Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, a Congress-BSP alliance would have seen a shift in 11 seats. The BJP, which won 163 of the 200 seat, would easily form the government. In 2013, the Congress won 21 seats and BSP 3. The remaining 13 seats went to others, including Independents.
The Congress-BSP combine in 2013 in Rajasthan would have won 34. BJP got nine seats and National People’s Party (NPP) one seat. Data shows the Congress-BSP alliance could have won 46 seats with an increase of 24 while the BJP tally would have reduced by 24.